Six Weeks?
Tick-tock ...
I have a prediction to make. Like many of my political predictions, it may prove to be completely wrong. But I’ll give it a shot anyway.
My prediction is that the situation in the United States will come to a head and achieve a resolution within the next six weeks, more or less.
I make this prediction because I believe the current state of affairs is unsustainable. At present, we occupy a twilight zone in which the people still believe they live in a constitutional republic that follows the rule of law, while the federal government behaves as though the US is an autocracy in which all laws are subordinate to the president’s whims.
I do not believe the tension between these two opposing standpoints can be maintained much longer, especially since the administration is clearly bent on testing the limits of its power in every direction.
In Minnesota, the shooting of Renee Good — and, more important, the administration’s immediate declaration of unqualified support for the shooter — has left ICE officers feeling invulnerable. My social media feed is crowded with videos of ICE throwing citizens to the ground, beating, harassing, and threatening them, and acting more thuggish than ever, apparently with complete impunity.
(Click on tweets to see the videos on X.)
In Washington, Trump’s Justice Department has filed bogus charges of cost overruns against the Federal Reserve chairman, in a transparent effort to oust the chairman a few months ahead of schedule. This is a much bigger deal than it might seem, since the Federal Reserve’s independence from partisan politics is key to the management of our economy.
Internationally, Trump’s Venezuela policy, premised on the ready availability of Venezuelan oil, has collapsed into incoherence, with major oil companies telling Trump that Venezuela is “uninvestable” under present circumstances. Worse, Trump’s continued saber-rattling toward Greenland has triggered a coordinated response by NATO’s European members, who are contemplating defensive military action that could pit American soldiers against their European counterparts. According to The Daily Mail, Trump has ordered special forces commanders to prepare invasion plans for Greenland, but the commanders are resisting because they think such an invasion would be illegal. British tabloids are not always reliable, but there’s no reason to doubt this story, which is in line with everything Trump is saying and doing publicly.
Finally, there’s what’s going on inside Trump’s skull. To most observers, it’s clear that his mental stability, such as it was, has spiraled down the drain, leaving him a case study in grandiosity and megalomania. He told the New York Times that nothing except his own mind and his own morality can restrain his actions. (There is precious little evidence that he has much of a mind or any morality). On Air Force One, he told reporters that US forces may take on Cuba, Mexico, and Colombia. In a phone call to Fox & Friends after the Venezuela raid he said giddily, “We have to do it again. We can do it again, too. Nobody can stop us.” His impromptu remarks are increasingly incoherent, his social media posts are increasingly bizarre, and his policies are increasingly chaotic and destructive.
I believe that over the next six weeks or so, one or more of these narratives will reach its climax. Maybe ICE will commit an even more egregious killing in Minneapolis. Maybe Trump will fire the Fed chair outright. Maybe US forces will invade Greenland and take casualties. Maybe Trump will suffer a mental breakdown on live TV. It’s not impossible that all of these things could take place.
When and if this happens, we will have reached either the tipping point or the breaking point. Either Trump will consolidate his power, stripping away any remaining illusion that we live in a free country and establishing the current regime as a bona fide dictatorship, or Trump will be ousted, possibly by impeachment and conviction, or by the 25th Amendment, or in a military coup.
I could be wrong, of course. As I said, my political predictions are not very reliable. It’s theoretically possible that we’ll continue on this crazy course indefinitely. But I just can’t see it.
Something’s gotta give.
If something does happen within 6 weeks, I think the pro-democratic side of the country will ultimately win. Here's why.
1. Unlike Hungary and other countries that quickly fell under authoritarian rule, the US has been a democracy for 250 years, and that is ingrained into our culture. Resisting tyrants and kings is in our blood.
2. Trump has had almost a year to turn the US into an authoritarian nightmare with him as it's god-emperor... and he's failed. He's inflicted a lot of damage, yes, but we'll still a democracy, and the public and our institutions are still fighting back against him, and winning. Not all the time (the fascists in the Supreme Court have given him several big wins), but pushback has made him and his administration back down more often than you'd think (giving up on keeping the national guard in several cities, giving in to demand to bring back people sent to that El Salvadorian hellhole prison, not trying to get Jimmy Kimmel back off the air after the public forced Disney to bring him back etc.).
3. Trump is not a popular president. He still has massive support from his cult, but they're a minority, and more and more of his non-fanatical supporters are speaking out against him. Authoritarian leaders can only stay in power when they have massive public support, which Trump does not have, and as the cost of everything - especially healthcare - continues to rise, more and more people will turn against him. Independents are abandoning him in droves, Democrats won over 90% of special elections last year, and we're seeing Republicans in Congress defying Trump more and more, as well as an increasing number choosing to retire or not run for re-election; if Trump was as powerful as he and his followers said he is, they would obey his every command and enact every policy he wanted. That's not happened, and is probably never going to happen.
4. Career politicians and CEO's only believe in two things: Money and self-preservation. When they realize that Trump is about to sink/implode/whatever, and that the public hates the man so much that they want to see his tongue ripped out on live TV, they'll turn against Trump to save their own hides and careers. There will still be a handful of evil people and organizations who want to impose an authoritarian government, but they'll be in the minority. Heck, even oil companies are telling Trump, "Nah, dude, setting up operations in Venezuela is a bad investment."
5. From what I've heard, the military - especially the highest ranking generals - don't like Trump and especially don't like the clown that is Pete Hegseth, and especially don't like the idea of having to go to war with Denmark, Mexico, Greenland, and whatever place catches Trump's eye. I can't say for sure, but if I had to make an educated guess, I'd say that if the military was forced to choose between this administration and the public, the military would side with the public.
6. In case it hasn't been clear, the majority of people in the US hate Trump with a passion. We're seeing the biggest protests in US history under his watch, and if this majority realizes they have a chance to get rid of the mango monster once and for all, it's reasonable to assume they'll take it. And when faced with a public that is so f***ing sick of Trump and his supporters, and a military that's on their side, the few who support Trump in government will quickly back down, if only to save their own lives.
With all that said, there's no denying that this may well be the worst state the US has been in since the Civil War. Things are really bad, but I think that while we're approaching critical mass, there are a lot more reasons to be realistically optimistic than you'd think, and history shows that when the US goes through awful periods, they're followed by a surge in progressive policies and changes in society that ultimately leaves everyone better off... except for, you know, hate-filled fascists.
Also, Michael, have you ever been to Political Optimism on Reddit? That site has single-handily saved my sanity during the past year, and it may help you out as well.
I'm not exactly sure about the timing, but I think he's about to be deposed by the military. I think the he will order them to cross the Rubicon, in effect, and they will refuse, and he will go ballistic, start ranting at and commanding at senior brass in a clearly unwell way, and they will be forced to take him into "protective custody." Whether this will happen the "easy way" (with members of his cabinet going along, invoking the 25th, etc., and the GOP in general falling in line) or the "hard way" (the opposite of that, resulting in a manifest ending of the Republic as we knew it), remains to be seen. Should the military agree to attacking a NATO member, we will have an instant civil war in the US, and they know it, so I don't think it will go that route. But yes, this can't go on for much longer at all.