If something does happen within 6 weeks, I think the pro-democratic side of the country will ultimately win. Here's why.
1. Unlike Hungary and other countries that quickly fell under authoritarian rule, the US has been a democracy for 250 years, and that is ingrained into our culture. Resisting tyrants and kings is in our blood.
2. Trump has had almost a year to turn the US into an authoritarian nightmare with him as it's god-emperor... and he's failed. He's inflicted a lot of damage, yes, but we'll still a democracy, and the public and our institutions are still fighting back against him, and winning. Not all the time (the fascists in the Supreme Court have given him several big wins), but pushback has made him and his administration back down more often than you'd think (giving up on keeping the national guard in several cities, giving in to demand to bring back people sent to that El Salvadorian hellhole prison, not trying to get Jimmy Kimmel back off the air after the public forced Disney to bring him back etc.).
3. Trump is not a popular president. He still has massive support from his cult, but they're a minority, and more and more of his non-fanatical supporters are speaking out against him. Authoritarian leaders can only stay in power when they have massive public support, which Trump does not have, and as the cost of everything - especially healthcare - continues to rise, more and more people will turn against him. Independents are abandoning him in droves, Democrats won over 90% of special elections last year, and we're seeing Republicans in Congress defying Trump more and more, as well as an increasing number choosing to retire or not run for re-election; if Trump was as powerful as he and his followers said he is, they would obey his every command and enact every policy he wanted. That's not happened, and is probably never going to happen.
4. Career politicians and CEO's only believe in two things: Money and self-preservation. When they realize that Trump is about to sink/implode/whatever, and that the public hates the man so much that they want to see his tongue ripped out on live TV, they'll turn against Trump to save their own hides and careers. There will still be a handful of evil people and organizations who want to impose an authoritarian government, but they'll be in the minority. Heck, even oil companies are telling Trump, "Nah, dude, setting up operations in Venezuela is a bad investment."
5. From what I've heard, the military - especially the highest ranking generals - don't like Trump and especially don't like the clown that is Pete Hegseth, and especially don't like the idea of having to go to war with Denmark, Mexico, Greenland, and whatever place catches Trump's eye. I can't say for sure, but if I had to make an educated guess, I'd say that if the military was forced to choose between this administration and the public, the military would side with the public.
6. In case it hasn't been clear, the majority of people in the US hate Trump with a passion. We're seeing the biggest protests in US history under his watch, and if this majority realizes they have a chance to get rid of the mango monster once and for all, it's reasonable to assume they'll take it. And when faced with a public that is so f***ing sick of Trump and his supporters, and a military that's on their side, the few who support Trump in government will quickly back down, if only to save their own lives.
With all that said, there's no denying that this may well be the worst state the US has been in since the Civil War. Things are really bad, but I think that while we're approaching critical mass, there are a lot more reasons to be realistically optimistic than you'd think, and history shows that when the US goes through awful periods, they're followed by a surge in progressive policies and changes in society that ultimately leaves everyone better off... except for, you know, hate-filled fascists.
Also, Michael, have you ever been to Political Optimism on Reddit? That site has single-handily saved my sanity during the past year, and it may help you out as well.
Very good analysis, Ian. You’re probably right, but my natural pessimism keeps me from agreeing wholeheartedly.
The Trump approach, probably crafted by his advisors, is to take multiple paths to the same end. For instance, Trump clearly wants his own personal domestic army, which can enforce his will anywhere in the country. The administration has come up with several approaches aimed at achieving this goal.
One of them was to send the regular Army and Marines into Los Angeles, but this was ruled illegal.
Another was to send federalized National Guard troops into various cities, but there was massive pushback from the courts, and those troops are now being withdrawn.
The third approach has been to use ICE as Trump‘s personal stormtroopers. Despite public resistance, Trump has not yet backed down – in fact, he is doubling down in Minnesota.
Finally, there is the option of invoking the Insurrection Act and effectively declaring martial law in parts of the country. Trump put out a Truth Social post, just today, threatening to do this in Minnesota.
So we see that two of the four strategies have failed, the third is continuing but encountering resistance, and the fourth is now on the table.
These guys will never give up until they are definitively stopped. And I’m not sure what it will take to stop them. 
I'm not exactly sure about the timing, but I think he's about to be deposed by the military. I think the he will order them to cross the Rubicon, in effect, and they will refuse, and he will go ballistic, start ranting at and commanding at senior brass in a clearly unwell way, and they will be forced to take him into "protective custody." Whether this will happen the "easy way" (with members of his cabinet going along, invoking the 25th, etc., and the GOP in general falling in line) or the "hard way" (the opposite of that, resulting in a manifest ending of the Republic as we knew it), remains to be seen. Should the military agree to attacking a NATO member, we will have an instant civil war in the US, and they know it, so I don't think it will go that route. But yes, this can't go on for much longer at all.
(Update: This post was a parody. I got fooled.) Today Trump “truthed” the opinion that Americans are drinking too much and maybe we should bring back Prohibition. Actually US alcohol consumption is way down. Even if it weren’t, this is about the stupidest thing a POTUS could say — threatening to revive a notoriously failed policy that was and is deeply unpopular. (My bad for falling for the fake post. But it’s not any crazier than what he’s really saying and doing.)
So what accounts for it? His mind is gone. Just gone.
That’s why I think six weeks (more or less) is a reasonable guesstimate. He can’t think anymore. He’s hard pressed even to pretend to be able to think. But because he’s manic and is surrounded by hardcore authoritarians like Stephen Miller, he’s going to keep escalating. His response to the Renee Good shooting was to send more ICE agents to Minneapolis. His response to NATO’s pushback on Greenland is to up the rhetoric and prepare for war.
I’m lost for words these days. I would never have imagined this situation in my wildest nightmares. It would be hilarious as a comedy film plot. Sadly, it’s a terrifying and depressing reality. Especially so when considering the other major events in play these days. Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan etc.
Stanley Kubrick, if he were still with us, could do a sequel to Dr. Strangelove using Trump and his cabinet. And Peter Sellers, if he were still with us, could play all the parts.
I don't much follow the news from my own country in Europe, where I spend my life, much less news from North America. But,
1) Recently I read works by the French anthropologist Emmanuel Todd, who has a good track record of predictions*. Among other things, Todd argues that an authoritarian rule cannot possibly be sustained in the Anglo-Saxon countries due to the basic structural and cultural features of their societies. It's not so much that an authoritarian regime would face a backlash in the form of an organised revolt from a liberty-loving citizenry, but that such a rule would simply fall apart.
2) I just read an article that leaves me an impression of being thoughtful -- and possibly very truthful. You might check it out, and see how it looks to you:
Thanks for the thoughtful comment, Dors. To take your second point first, I think the Substack post you linked to makes some good points. It’s true that these protesters are stretching the definition of “nonviolent” in many cases — getting right in the ICE officers’ faces, screaming or blowing whistles, sometimes surrounding them or impeding their movement. It’s also true that if ICE really wanted to reduce the illegal alien population, they would fine the employers. The highly visible raids are a form of theater. Someone described the Trump administration as a “clicktatorship,” a regime bent on dominating social media by generating viral videos. But the protesters are also generating viral videos. We’re living in a meme war.
But I think the evenhandedness of this assessment is a problem. The danger posed by masked troops who snatch random persons, demand proof of citizenship, and beat the snot out of people is much greater than any danger posed by whistle-blowing protesters, no matter how annoying and disruptive they are. And in combination with the administration’s general indifference to the law (where are the Epstein files?) and to Constitutional norms (how often has Trump teased a third term?), the deployment of thuggish commandos to city streets is a giant red flag. I suspect the goal is to foment enough violence to justify martial law, which Trump is now threatening to impose on Minneapolis.
With regard to Anglo-Saxon societies, I’d say that Elizabethan England was a pretty efficient police state (spy networks, the Star Chamber, censorship, torture), and its repressive policies lasted into the Jacobean era. I can’t think of any modern examples, but I wouldn’t want to be complacent about it. There’s a first time for everything.
The sharting pretty much goes without saying at this point. Did you see the "milk" video in the Oval Office where two little girls were standing near him when suddenly a low, drawn-out sigh is heard? Immediately after this, the girls look uncomfortable and turn nervously to their mom, who hugs them tighter. 😞
The auto workers at the Ford plant reportedly were astonished by Trump’s odor. One of them compared it to “bad breath and feces.” Normally I would dismiss this as a baseless rumor, but so many people have commented on Trump’s smell, and there are so many videos of people looking nauseated in his presence, that I think there must be some truth to it.
Is he and his party still enjoying a significant level of support from the voting public, or are more of his supporters starting to see things for what they are, and use their intellect?
His support appears to be between 35-40%. He still enjoys overwhelming support from Republicans but has lost independents.
I think three things account for his continuing support among Republicans.
Blind partisanship. Some people treat politics like a team sport. They will never root against their team.
Apathy and ignorance. A lot of Americans pay no attention to the news and have no idea what’s going on.
Fascist or quasi-fascist leanings. Some percentage of Americans really do want a dictator. They admire Putin, think Hitler got a bum rap, and have untreated anger-management issues. They get a kick out of seeing their “enemies” beaten, humiliated, and arrested.
I don’t know how many of the 35-40% of the public who support Trump fall into each category.
If something does happen within 6 weeks, I think the pro-democratic side of the country will ultimately win. Here's why.
1. Unlike Hungary and other countries that quickly fell under authoritarian rule, the US has been a democracy for 250 years, and that is ingrained into our culture. Resisting tyrants and kings is in our blood.
2. Trump has had almost a year to turn the US into an authoritarian nightmare with him as it's god-emperor... and he's failed. He's inflicted a lot of damage, yes, but we'll still a democracy, and the public and our institutions are still fighting back against him, and winning. Not all the time (the fascists in the Supreme Court have given him several big wins), but pushback has made him and his administration back down more often than you'd think (giving up on keeping the national guard in several cities, giving in to demand to bring back people sent to that El Salvadorian hellhole prison, not trying to get Jimmy Kimmel back off the air after the public forced Disney to bring him back etc.).
3. Trump is not a popular president. He still has massive support from his cult, but they're a minority, and more and more of his non-fanatical supporters are speaking out against him. Authoritarian leaders can only stay in power when they have massive public support, which Trump does not have, and as the cost of everything - especially healthcare - continues to rise, more and more people will turn against him. Independents are abandoning him in droves, Democrats won over 90% of special elections last year, and we're seeing Republicans in Congress defying Trump more and more, as well as an increasing number choosing to retire or not run for re-election; if Trump was as powerful as he and his followers said he is, they would obey his every command and enact every policy he wanted. That's not happened, and is probably never going to happen.
4. Career politicians and CEO's only believe in two things: Money and self-preservation. When they realize that Trump is about to sink/implode/whatever, and that the public hates the man so much that they want to see his tongue ripped out on live TV, they'll turn against Trump to save their own hides and careers. There will still be a handful of evil people and organizations who want to impose an authoritarian government, but they'll be in the minority. Heck, even oil companies are telling Trump, "Nah, dude, setting up operations in Venezuela is a bad investment."
5. From what I've heard, the military - especially the highest ranking generals - don't like Trump and especially don't like the clown that is Pete Hegseth, and especially don't like the idea of having to go to war with Denmark, Mexico, Greenland, and whatever place catches Trump's eye. I can't say for sure, but if I had to make an educated guess, I'd say that if the military was forced to choose between this administration and the public, the military would side with the public.
6. In case it hasn't been clear, the majority of people in the US hate Trump with a passion. We're seeing the biggest protests in US history under his watch, and if this majority realizes they have a chance to get rid of the mango monster once and for all, it's reasonable to assume they'll take it. And when faced with a public that is so f***ing sick of Trump and his supporters, and a military that's on their side, the few who support Trump in government will quickly back down, if only to save their own lives.
With all that said, there's no denying that this may well be the worst state the US has been in since the Civil War. Things are really bad, but I think that while we're approaching critical mass, there are a lot more reasons to be realistically optimistic than you'd think, and history shows that when the US goes through awful periods, they're followed by a surge in progressive policies and changes in society that ultimately leaves everyone better off... except for, you know, hate-filled fascists.
Also, Michael, have you ever been to Political Optimism on Reddit? That site has single-handily saved my sanity during the past year, and it may help you out as well.
Very good analysis, Ian. You’re probably right, but my natural pessimism keeps me from agreeing wholeheartedly.
The Trump approach, probably crafted by his advisors, is to take multiple paths to the same end. For instance, Trump clearly wants his own personal domestic army, which can enforce his will anywhere in the country. The administration has come up with several approaches aimed at achieving this goal.
One of them was to send the regular Army and Marines into Los Angeles, but this was ruled illegal.
Another was to send federalized National Guard troops into various cities, but there was massive pushback from the courts, and those troops are now being withdrawn.
The third approach has been to use ICE as Trump‘s personal stormtroopers. Despite public resistance, Trump has not yet backed down – in fact, he is doubling down in Minnesota.
Finally, there is the option of invoking the Insurrection Act and effectively declaring martial law in parts of the country. Trump put out a Truth Social post, just today, threatening to do this in Minnesota.
So we see that two of the four strategies have failed, the third is continuing but encountering resistance, and the fourth is now on the table.
These guys will never give up until they are definitively stopped. And I’m not sure what it will take to stop them. 
I'm not exactly sure about the timing, but I think he's about to be deposed by the military. I think the he will order them to cross the Rubicon, in effect, and they will refuse, and he will go ballistic, start ranting at and commanding at senior brass in a clearly unwell way, and they will be forced to take him into "protective custody." Whether this will happen the "easy way" (with members of his cabinet going along, invoking the 25th, etc., and the GOP in general falling in line) or the "hard way" (the opposite of that, resulting in a manifest ending of the Republic as we knew it), remains to be seen. Should the military agree to attacking a NATO member, we will have an instant civil war in the US, and they know it, so I don't think it will go that route. But yes, this can't go on for much longer at all.
(Update: This post was a parody. I got fooled.) Today Trump “truthed” the opinion that Americans are drinking too much and maybe we should bring back Prohibition. Actually US alcohol consumption is way down. Even if it weren’t, this is about the stupidest thing a POTUS could say — threatening to revive a notoriously failed policy that was and is deeply unpopular. (My bad for falling for the fake post. But it’s not any crazier than what he’s really saying and doing.)
So what accounts for it? His mind is gone. Just gone.
That’s why I think six weeks (more or less) is a reasonable guesstimate. He can’t think anymore. He’s hard pressed even to pretend to be able to think. But because he’s manic and is surrounded by hardcore authoritarians like Stephen Miller, he’s going to keep escalating. His response to the Renee Good shooting was to send more ICE agents to Minneapolis. His response to NATO’s pushback on Greenland is to up the rhetoric and prepare for war.
He can’t be reasoned with. He’s Caligula now.
I agree, Michael. Any Roman emperor in a similar state would have had a "calm, reasoned discussion" with the Praetorian Guard by now...
Gotta correct myself. The Prohibition post I cited above was a fake.
I wish people would stop doing that. Trump posts enough authentically crazy stuff without misleading people with parodies.
Despite this mistake, I stand by my opinion that Trump is crazy and that we’re nearing a crisis point.
He's so far gone that anything attributed to him, no matter how crazy, is believable.
I’m lost for words these days. I would never have imagined this situation in my wildest nightmares. It would be hilarious as a comedy film plot. Sadly, it’s a terrifying and depressing reality. Especially so when considering the other major events in play these days. Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan etc.
Stanley Kubrick, if he were still with us, could do a sequel to Dr. Strangelove using Trump and his cabinet. And Peter Sellers, if he were still with us, could play all the parts.
A job for AI, maybe? 🤔
I don't much follow the news from my own country in Europe, where I spend my life, much less news from North America. But,
1) Recently I read works by the French anthropologist Emmanuel Todd, who has a good track record of predictions*. Among other things, Todd argues that an authoritarian rule cannot possibly be sustained in the Anglo-Saxon countries due to the basic structural and cultural features of their societies. It's not so much that an authoritarian regime would face a backlash in the form of an organised revolt from a liberty-loving citizenry, but that such a rule would simply fall apart.
* On his prediction record : https://policytensor.substack.com/p/the-churchs-crusade-against-cousin
His argument: https://archive.org/details/explanationofide0000todd
2) I just read an article that leaves me an impression of being thoughtful -- and possibly very truthful. You might check it out, and see how it looks to you:
https://jdanielsawyer.substack.com/p/a-new-childrens-crusade
With best wishes,
Thanks for the thoughtful comment, Dors. To take your second point first, I think the Substack post you linked to makes some good points. It’s true that these protesters are stretching the definition of “nonviolent” in many cases — getting right in the ICE officers’ faces, screaming or blowing whistles, sometimes surrounding them or impeding their movement. It’s also true that if ICE really wanted to reduce the illegal alien population, they would fine the employers. The highly visible raids are a form of theater. Someone described the Trump administration as a “clicktatorship,” a regime bent on dominating social media by generating viral videos. But the protesters are also generating viral videos. We’re living in a meme war.
But I think the evenhandedness of this assessment is a problem. The danger posed by masked troops who snatch random persons, demand proof of citizenship, and beat the snot out of people is much greater than any danger posed by whistle-blowing protesters, no matter how annoying and disruptive they are. And in combination with the administration’s general indifference to the law (where are the Epstein files?) and to Constitutional norms (how often has Trump teased a third term?), the deployment of thuggish commandos to city streets is a giant red flag. I suspect the goal is to foment enough violence to justify martial law, which Trump is now threatening to impose on Minneapolis.
With regard to Anglo-Saxon societies, I’d say that Elizabethan England was a pretty efficient police state (spy networks, the Star Chamber, censorship, torture), and its repressive policies lasted into the Jacobean era. I can’t think of any modern examples, but I wouldn’t want to be complacent about it. There’s a first time for everything.
I'm for public mental breakdown (as his stubby finger seemed to indicate) but with excessive sharting himself involved.
The sharting pretty much goes without saying at this point. Did you see the "milk" video in the Oval Office where two little girls were standing near him when suddenly a low, drawn-out sigh is heard? Immediately after this, the girls look uncomfortable and turn nervously to their mom, who hugs them tighter. 😞
Those poor girls probably smelled something that will traumatize them for life combined with knowing now what healthy three dollar meals look like.
The auto workers at the Ford plant reportedly were astonished by Trump’s odor. One of them compared it to “bad breath and feces.” Normally I would dismiss this as a baseless rumor, but so many people have commented on Trump’s smell, and there are so many videos of people looking nauseated in his presence, that I think there must be some truth to it.
Is he and his party still enjoying a significant level of support from the voting public, or are more of his supporters starting to see things for what they are, and use their intellect?
His support appears to be between 35-40%. He still enjoys overwhelming support from Republicans but has lost independents.
I think three things account for his continuing support among Republicans.
Blind partisanship. Some people treat politics like a team sport. They will never root against their team.
Apathy and ignorance. A lot of Americans pay no attention to the news and have no idea what’s going on.
Fascist or quasi-fascist leanings. Some percentage of Americans really do want a dictator. They admire Putin, think Hitler got a bum rap, and have untreated anger-management issues. They get a kick out of seeing their “enemies” beaten, humiliated, and arrested.
I don’t know how many of the 35-40% of the public who support Trump fall into each category.